Trump’s Affordability Crisis Is Catching Up to Republicans As Black and Brown Voters Shift

DONALD Trump won 48% of Latino voters in 2024 – the best Republican showing in half a century. Fourteen months later, 70% disapprove of his performance as President. What changed? The price of groceries.

Pew Research found 68% of Latinos say things are worse for them today than a year ago – the first time most Hispanics said this in nearly 20 years of surveys. Trump's support among Hispanics has fallen to 28%, down 13 points since February, said The Economist/YouGov. And the U.S. Hispanic Business Council reports 42 percent of Latino business owners say things are worse for them under Trump. 

Black working-class voters face the same squeeze. Trump's support with Black voters has fallen to just 10%, reports the New York Times. Among Blacks, high prices now poll higher than civil and voting rights concerns. 

When Black and Brown families can't get ahead economically, social justice issues like civil rights and immigration tend to fall on their priority list. When rent hikes eat up raises or grocery bills climb 20% while pay stays flat, social issues become a luxury instead of a necessity. 

Democrats used this to their advantage in 2025 to reverse Trump’s gains with Black and Brown voters. In key races across Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats focused on high prices and showed pocketbook messaging works strongly when it's centered rather than mentioned as an add-on to social issues. 

Latino voters swung hard toward Democrats - backing Democratic governors by 37- and 34-point margins in New Jersey and Virginia. Kamala Harris only carried Latinos in these states by a razor-thin 3-point margin in 2024. Among Black voters, 89% voted for Democrats for governor in New Jersey and 86% in Virginia, while Harris carried Black voters by a much smaller margin at 68%, according to the Pew Research Center. 

Trump is many things, but he is not politically oblivious. He sees the data. He sees working-class voters frustrated by debt traps and high prices. And he sees Democrats gaining trust by offering real answers to high prices, while he pivots to foreign policy side shows like military action in Venezuela – an issue that doesn't pay anyone's rent.

But if Democrats remain disciplined and deliver results, Trump’s recent pivot to affordability won’t be enough.

Republicans still oppose the very policies that could lower costs. Take insulin prices. Democrats capped costs at $35 per month for Medicare, saving diabetic seniors thousands yearly. House Republicans voted against it 215 times. When voters see one party cutting prices and another blocking them, the choice becomes clear. Republicans can’t run as champions of working-class families while protecting the corporations that squeeze them. Voters are increasingly sophisticated about that contradiction, and this creates an opportunity for Democrats.

Republicans are realizing affordability is not a niche issue or a Democratic hoax. It is the issue. It cuts across race, ideology, and geography. When people feel economically trapped, they will abandon any party that seems indifferent, no matter their personal feelings on cultural or identity politics.

Republicans built gains with working-class Black and Brown voters by presenting themselves as insurgents against an unfair system. But when the bills keep rising, and their party offers no real relief, that image collapses. 

Democrats meanwhile have rediscovered that when everyday life becomes unaffordable, cultural politics cannot cover the bill. The working class doesn’t experience inflation, rent hikes, or credit-card interest rates as abstract economic data, nor do they have the luxury of worrying about cultural issues when bills are due. 

And across the country, affordability is beginning to reshape political loyalties, including among groups of working-class Black and Brown voters where Republicans had been steadily gaining.

As we head into the 2026 midterms, Democrats must remember we won’t win back Black and Brown working-class voters by becoming more progressive or more moderate. We win them back by becoming more relevant to daily life. And that is what now has Trump scrambling.

Kevin Harris

Richard Daniels

Kevin Harris and Richard McDaniel are veteran Democratic strategists with over 100 political campaigns between them, including the past five presidential elections and several congressional races. They co-host “Maroon Bison Presents: The Southern Comfort Podcast.”